Hampton, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXUS61 KAKQ 260101
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
901 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A prolonged period of heat and humidity continues into early
next week. Daily highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices
above 105 degrees are expected. Storm chances also return this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 900 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated thunderstorms are possible through early tonight
  across the lower MD Eastern Shore.

Latest wx analysis shows a strong upper ridge over the SE CONUS
coast/srn Mid-Atlantic with the main westerly belt well to our
north. Sfc high pressure remains off the SE CONUS coast. It was
a hot day with high temps in the mid 90s for most of the area
under humid conditions. Temps have cooled off some with the
loss of heating, but heat indices are still hovering in the 90s
to around 100 F given dew points in the upper 70s to locally
around 80 F. The Heat Advisory for the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore was allowed to expire at 8 PM. For the other areas, the
advisory continues through tonight into the remainder of the
weekend.

Still watching the potential for isolated tstms across northern
portions of the area ahead of an approaching backdoor cold
front. Based on latest radar and guidance trends, the best
potential for this is over the MD Eastern Shore through around
midnight as isolated- scattered storms over nrn MD and DE drop
S. Did up PoPs to 30% over the northern portion of our MD
counties to address this potential.

The above mentioned backdoor front is progged to cross the area
overnight...with a wind shift to the N-NE expected. However,
CAA will be very minimal behind it (but will likely be enough to
keep NE portions of the FA below Heat Advisory criteria on
Sat). Lows tonight in the mid- upper 70s are expected with areas
along the coast potentially struggling to drop below 80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- A prolonged period of heat and humidity continues this weekend with
  widespread heat indices of 105 to 110F likely. Heat
  Advisories are in effect for all areas through Sunday evening
  outside of the northern neck and eastern shore.

- Scattered storms are possible during the afternoon and evening
  on Sat and Sun. A few strong to severe storms are possible
  each day.

The large ridge is progged to slowly retrograde westward over the
weekend as it expands. Our area will be on the N/NE periphery of the
ridge and the flow aloft shifts from the W to the NW by the end of
the weekend. At the sfc, high pressure remains centered off the
Southeast coast with another area of high pressure sliding across
New England and out to sea. As such, the heat and humidity is
expected to peak this weekend with widespread heat indices of 105-
110F across the area. Have extended the Heat Advisories through
Sunday evening for all areas south of a Louisa-Tappahannock line.
Also, have converted the Extreme Heat Watch to a Heat Advisory for
NE NC (though some 110F heat indices are possible across interior NE
NC...especially on Sunday). Given the backdoor front and NE flow
expected on Saturday, plan to allow the advisories for the VA
Northern Neck and Lower Eastern Shore expire at 8 PM this evening.

As previously mentioned, there won`t be much in the way of CAA
behind the front with a corridor of higher dew pts likely right
along the front. Temps will be a few degrees hotter on Sat across
our inland zones, with widespread mid 90s expected. Temps will rise
into the upper 80s-lower 90s closer to the coast due to the NE flow
behind the front (mid 80s possible near the immediate Atlantic
coast). With mid to perhaps upper 70s dew pts, max heat indices will
rise to 105-109F across most areas outside the VA Northern
Neck/Lower Eastern Shore. Isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms
are possible inland on Sat (mainly from 3-10 PM...with the highest
tstm chances N of I-64). Even though shear will be weak, localized
damaging wind gusts are possible due to the strong sfc heating,
fairly steep LLVL lapse rates, and somewhat dry mid levels. SPC has
introduced a Day 2 Marginal severe risk for the northern part of the
area to account for this.

Sunday will likely be the hottest day of the period as the front
washes out and the flow becomes light out of the SW. Forecast highs
are in the mid-upper 90s SW to the upper 80s NE after starting out
in the mid-upper 70s. With mid-upper 70s dew pts, heat indices in
excess of 105F are likely across much of the area, with a slightly
better chance of 110F heat indices across NE NC. May need heat
warnings for part of our area (mainly NE NC) on Sun, but there was
not enough confidence to issue one with this package, and have
extended the advisory through the entire weekend (including during
the nighttime hours) to help message the prolonged nature of the
heat. A weak shortwave is progged to track over the area from NW-SE
along the periphery of the upper ridge Sunday evening...which will
likely result in a higher coverage of tstms. There will be plenty of
instability in place given the heat. With the upper flow increasing
slightly (to 20-30 kt), some degree of storm organization is
possible. Similar to Sat, a few of the storms could produce damaging
wind gusts. Still hot on Monday but there may be a very slight break
in the heat in the wake of the shortwave as the LLVL flow becomes
northerly. Forecast highs are generally in the lower-mid 90s with
lower-mid 70s dew pts. Heat Advisories may be needed for southern
portions of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- The heat and humidity continues through Wednesday with additional
  heat headlines possible.

- Scattered storms are possible Thursday and Friday.

Aloft, the ridge continues to retrograde W through midweek with a
trough dropping S into the East Coast by late week. This trough will
eventually drag a cold front through the area by late Thursday or
Friday (although exact timing is uncertain). Mainly dry (outside of
isolated aftn/evening tstms) with hot and humid weather expected on
Tue/Wed, with heat indices of 105-109F still possible through Wed.
More widespread showers and tstms (along with relief from the heat)
is expected by next Thu/Fri. At this time, it looks like precip
chances persist through Friday with a better chance of dry and
pleasant weather by next weekend w/ highs in the 80s and lows in the
60s. The cooler air mass coincides nicely with the transition in
months from July to August and there continues to be a strong
ensemble signal for much cooler weather arriving by next
Fri/Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions prevail at all area terminals this evening. Some
mid-high clouds are moving into nrn portions of the area in
association with dissipating convective activity. However, not
expecting much, if any, showers/storms this evening and early
tonight. The best chance would be at SBY (~20% chance through
midnight/04z) and will have a VCSH mention in the TAF there.
Otherwise, partly cloudy N and mostly clear S tonight. Winds
shift to the NE behind a weak backdoor cold front Saturday
morning, but conditions looks to remain VFR and dry. E to NE
winds average up to 10 kt along the coast and around 5 kt inland
Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are possible Sat
afternoon/evening (mainly N) and have put PROB30 groups in the
21z-00z timeframe at RIC and SBY for TSRA and 3SM VSBY.

Outlook: Model guidance suggests MVFR or IFR CIGs could push
into the area Sat night into Sun morning. A somewhat higher
coverage of showers/storms is expected Sunday aftn/evening area-
wide. VFR with a lower storm coverage is anticipated Mon- Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Generally benign marine conditions expected through the middle
  of next week.

- A (weak) back door cold front will cross the waters on
  Saturday, shifting winds to the NE to E, but remaining sub-
  SCA.


High pressure offshore, with a lee trough in place inland this
aftn. Seas are mainly around 2 ft, with waves ~1 ft for the
Bay/rivers with W-SW winds 10 kt or less.

A backdoor cold front moves southward across the Mid Atlantic
overnight, crossing the local waters from N to S Saturday
morning. Winds will shift to the north and eventually east
through the day Saturday before becoming southeast on Sunday. At
this time, wind speeds and wave heights are still expected to
remain below Small Craft Advisory levels through the weekend.
Seas remain 2 to 3 feet (highest N) through the weekend with
waves on the Ches Bay of 1 to 2 feet (highest Saturday evening).
Expect to see a bit more in the way on tstms across the N
Saturday aftn/evening , and area-wide Sunday aftn/evening, with
localized stronger winds in storms. Rather weak pressure
gradient prevails Mon-Wed, with winds 5-10kt or less, and with
daily seabreeze influences expected.

Have maintained a moderate rip risk for northern beaches
Saturday with onshore flow expected, but this will be marginal
given nearshore seas less than 3 ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
We are at, or just past, the climatologically warmest week of
the year across the local area. So, while no record highs are
expected to be threatened during the upcoming weekend, we do
have a chance of meeting or exceeding record high minimum
temps. We`ve included both for reference.

Daily Record High Maximum Temperatures Fri 7/25 - Sun 7/27

Date    Richmond   Norfolk   Salisbury   Eliz. City

07/25   105/2010   105/2010   100/2010    97/1949
07/26   100/1940   100/1940    98/2012    97/1995
07/27   101/1940   104/1940   102/1940   100/1940


Daily Record High Minimum Temperatures Fri 7/25 - Sun 7/27

Date    Richmond   Norfolk   Salisbury   Eliz. City

07/25    79/2010    79/2016    79/2001    79/2010
07/26    76/1989    80/2016    79/2001    78/2009
07/27    78/2005    80/2020    75/2023    78/2020

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-
     079>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...ERI
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...LKB/SW
MARINE...AJB/LKB
CLIMATE...